The summer break presents students and their families with an opportunity to put together their college admissions strategy. Early decision often plays a significant role in the strategy many families chose to pursue. While most families are aware of the advantages they can have by applying early, very few understand the nuances of the early admissions process and headwinds they may face.
When looking at the likelihood of admissions through early decision (ED) versus the regular decision route it is important to understand that most colleges encourage athletic recruits to apply early. The impact of this practice on the early decision pool can be dramatic at smaller schools. For example, Williams College accepts approximately 500 new students every year, roughly half of them in the early decision round. Over the past few years, Williams has listed 200+/- freshman athletes on their website. While not every freshman athlete was recruited by a coach, received a pre-read and had their application supported by the athletics department it is safe to assume a significant number did and the majority of them were encouraged to apply ED. In brief, it is easy to see that at smaller institutions athletes who have been pre-read and are therefore extremely likely to be accepted may make up a significant portion of the ED pool, making the odds for non-athletes lower than they appear.
Applicants to larger schools see less of an early decision headwind but it still exists. Dartmouth College, which is a bit over twice the size of Williams college has posted the following statements over the past few years.
“With recruited athletes removed from the Early Decision numbers the statistical advantage isn’t as large.”
“Keep in mind that published higher percentages of applicants accepted early is somewhat misleading because it includes recruited Division 1 athletes, whose credentials have been reviewed in advance.”
A College Zoom analysis of Brown University, which is about 70% larger than Dartmouth, revealed that when factoring in athletics, class of 2021 early acceptance rate likely fell from 21.9% to 15.6%. While things have changed quite a bit since the class of 2021, they are also generally more competitive, and we believe that a similar percentage revision to reported ED numbers still makes sense and weighs on the odds of students who are not athletic recruits.
Legacy admissions have been a topic of discussion following the discontinuation of Affirmative Action, with institutions such as Wesleyan University, Carleton College, and Occidental College opting to end the practice. Virginia has also prohibited legacy admissions, and several other states are considering similar actions. Although not all colleges have completely abolished legacy admissions, many are now imposing stricter limitations on the practice compared to the past. Nonetheless, legacy admissions continue to be a factor at most schools, posing a challenge to early decision applicants. Typically, colleges encourage legacy candidates to apply early, and assuming that 5% of each incoming class consists of legacy students would be a very conservative estimate at most private institutions.
A quote from American University's website provides a good example of this policy.
“Any student who is committed to continuing the family tradition of attending American University should seriously consider applying Early Decision.”
In combination, both groups and the high likelihood of their acceptances can work to significantly inflate ED acceptance numbers .
To accurately assess the advantages of early decision (ED), it is important to consider the impact of athletes and legacy candidates on the number of seats allocated in the ED pool. It is also worth considering that both groups may lower the average GPA of the pool, potentially making GPA or standardized test scores aligned with these groups less compelling to admissions officers than applicants may believe.. While early decision can be a strategic advantage for eligible families, it is crucial not to squander this opportunity in cases where the benefits are minimal or non-existent.
Looking at the most recently available data would point to smaller schools with early decision acceptance rates of 2x and under the regular decision rate potentially being far more difficult to gain acceptance to in the ED round than most families believe. Schools like Carleton College, Denison University, Lafayette College and Skidmore College all fall into this category. On the other hand early decision applicants would seem to have a significant advantage at Grinnell College, Bates College and Colorado College whose ED acceptance rates are 4x-6x their regular decision rate. At larger schools, the early decision benefit at Tulane and Northeastern would seem to be significant while the ‘boost’ at Boston University and Wake Forest would seem more likely to disappoint. In brief, the differences between early decision acceptance rates can be dramatic.
College websites and college advisors offer valuable data to assist families in creating a successful application strategy. We consider it worthwhile to invest time in forming an informed opinion on an applicant's actual chances of admission and the rationale behind a school's admission policies that influence those chances. It is crucial for students and their families to understand these odds and make the most of their opportunities.
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