The Impact of Enrollment Declines on College Admissions

Enrollment declines and financial pressure can create opportunities in admissions.

 Over the past few years, a lot has been said about the financial pressures facing higher education. Whether it is the well-publicized decline in high school graduates, a decline in international applicants due to visa and geo-political issues or state and federal policy changes the reasons that explain the financial pressure are numerous. While once an argument that seemed like more of a political issue, a creeping concern about the value of college also seems to be a very real issue as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the number of high school graduates enrolling immediately in college after graduation has declined from slightly over 70% to slightly over 60%.

 The result of the pressure seen in higher education is captured in the increasing number of U.S. colleges that are closing, with Hampshire College one of the more well-known recent examples. A 2024 report by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve suggests that the variable that would drive a dramatic increase in the number of college closings would be increased enrollment declines, something that more and more colleges are starting to see.

While the headwinds facing higher education are significant many families continue to be frustrated by the continued decline of acceptance rates at most selective colleges that seems inconsistent with the endless drumbeat of negative financial news around higher education. While the easy explanation is that the pressure is seen in the ranks of the many lesser-known schools that make up the roughly 5,700 U.S. colleges and universities currently operating, the truth is more complex and presents opportunities to more knowledgeable applicants.

Robert Kelchem from the University of Tennessee is conducting some of the most detailed and interesting research on the health of higher education. By documenting and analyzing enrollment declines, operating losses, endowment decreases and their frequency, his work provides a comprehensive view of the financial pressures that are important to consider in the college admissions process. Information that can potentially lead to a higher likelihood of college acceptance.

This past June, J. Michael Haynie, the Chancellor of Syracuse University provided an update that indicated that the school missed it’s 2026 Enrollment target and that with lower enrollment came “real financial consequences, including a budget deficit”. The result of the financial pressure seen at Syracuse has been cost reductions and the elimination of staff and majors, actions most colleges and universities are traditionally reluctant to undertake. The other impact was an announced change in admissions recruiting strategies as the school looks to generate better enrollment numbers and improve its financial health. As college consultants, it is the latter impact that interests us. In a competitive and pressured enrollment environment it is easy to imagine that a school will accept a higher percentage of Early Decision candidates and be more responsive and accepting of applicants who have interacted with the school more and increased the conviction of their predictive admissions models and regional representatives that they will attend. In brief, we believe it may be a great year to apply to a school like Syracuse early and be aggressive ‘demonstrating interest’. While less publicized, Union College, another excellent school also recently reported lower enrollment results and a budget deficit. Much like at Syracuse, we feel it might make the college more attractive to applicants as acceptance in either their Early Decision or Regular Decision pools may be more likely.

  When thinking about other excellent and traditionally selective schools that may be seeing the same pressure as Syracuse or Union and offer the same opportunity in admissions we believe financial statements, press releases and the work of individuals like Robert Kelchem or Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce can come in handy.

We believe that looking at selective private schools who have been seeing modest enrollment pressure and more recently, operating losses is a good way to find admissions departments that are increasingly interested in Early Decision candidates and active applicants who look more likely to accept an offer in the predictive analytics and dashboards used by most admissions departments. With this in mind, while neither a perfect nor complete list, a number of high-quality schools look particularly interesting this fall for students looking to step up in terms of school quality and reputation as well as admissions likelihood. While there are more, in addition to Syracuse University and Union College, schools like American University, Bates, Colorado College, Franklin and Marshall, Kenyon, Oberlin, Occidental and Trinity (Hartford) may be worth a closer look.