Changes In Early Decision Strategy

We have previously written on the importance of getting a better understanding of Early Decision numbers and the impact athletes and legacy applicants have on them. In brief, it is important for families to understand that the higher Early Decision acceptance rates families see can be significantly lower for applicants who are not legacy applicants or recruited athletes.

While understanding the “real” Early Decision odds at schools continues to be an issue for most families, a lawsuit last summer focusing on the potentially discriminatory nature of the Early Decision practices of 32 elite colleges highlights a more important change in admissions generally overlooked by families.

James Murphy’s recent report for Class Action, “The Use and Abuse of Early Decision in College Admissions” adds detail to a concern many have had for some time, the relationship between wealth and Early Decision success. The report also highlights the significant growth in Early Decision over the past 10 years as well as the dramatically higher acceptance rate Early Decision candidates enjoy at a number of schools. One notable example of the growth of Early Decision enrollment at select colleges is at Boston University, which has seen the percentage of its freshman class coming from the ED channel grow from 20% in 2015 to 60% in 2024. Some other extreme examples are Northeastern, which has seen its percentage of ED enrollment grow from 9% to 54% and the University of Miami whose ED enrollment has grown from 12% to 44%, both in the same period.

To many, the increasing percentage of ED students in freshman classes is an issue because of what seems to be dramatically better acceptance odds for more affluent applicants who are able to apply ED. Northeastern’s 43% Early Decision acceptance rate vs. a 5% Regular Decision rate, Tulane’s 59% vs. 11%, Holy Cross’s 60% vs. 13%, Villanova’s 54% vs. 25%, Bucknell’s 55% vs. 26% and Fairfield’s 80% vs. 32% stand out, but more selective schools like Dartmouth (19% vs 4%) also point to an advantage that only a select group of applicants can enjoy.

The truth is complex

While there is little doubt that Early Decision is an advantage, it is also true that the optical advantage is inflated at smaller schools where athletics and legacy students make up a larger percentage of the ED admissions round. Our conversations also lead us to believe that a number of the schools mentioned in last summer’s Early Decision lawsuit may take fewer ED applicants this year and likely have a higher bar as it relates to academic requirements. This would potentially make the ED channel tougher than it has been at schools like Amherst, Duke, Emory, Rice, Swarthmore, Wesleyan, Williams and UPENN to name a few.

What is more interesting however is the work done by Philip Levine for the Brookings Institute. In his January 12 article ‘What Does Early Decision Do?’ Levine stresses what we believe is the trend most overlooked by families.

Levine’s work highlights average freshman revenues as generally unchanged at the schools that enroll large numbers of Early Decision applicants. Importantly, his work also shows an increasing number of Pell Grant recipients at many of the schools enrolling larger numbers of Early Decision applicants. It would seem that schools that generate more revenues from Early Decision in the fall need and pursue fewer regular decision revenues in the spring and that the advantage that higher-income students enjoy in fall Early Decision rounds are offset by a harder-than-average environment in the spring. What this means is that, depending on their students’ grades and application, families may want to be more conservative in Early Decision rounds because affluent Early Decision applicants are looking increasingly disadvantaged in regular decision rounds. Rather than 'taking a shot' at a less likely school, some applicants might be better served trying to lock in an acceptance in the ED round. Importantly, the trend that makes this a sound strategy would seem to be growing.

For those looking for help navigating the changing word of admissions, we are available.